恒生电子股吧(高毅邻山1号远望基金)

本文目录一览：

• 1、恒生电子股吧

• 2、高毅邻山1号远望基金

• 3、恒生电子股吧

• 4、恒生电子股吧网

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恒生电子吧(600570)

恒生电子吧

62.76-2.12-3.27%

帖子数1篇

圆fang

影响力注册时长3.1年

发表于 今天 11:03 来自Android版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 今天 12:47

已答

恒生慢点涨，等我先抄了万达的底来

MACD8899

影响力注册时长3.7年

发表于 今天 08:36 来自Android版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 今天 12:35

已答

什么叫高科技企业，看中国软件的财务报表你就明白！

时空概率估算者

影响力注册时长2.9年

发表于 今天 12:02 来自Android版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 今天 12:10

已答

谁知道恒生要“横”多久，还是近期科创板会来一波“狠”的？

股友F96FXA

影响力注册时长11个月

发表于 今天 10:23 来自Android版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 今天 10:25

已答

有点垃圾！

天道酬勤以静制动666

影响力注册时长2.5年

发表于 06-07 20:54 来自iPhone版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 23:53

已答

短期底部特征极其明显，开始近2周的反弹。

股友bYYveq6175

影响力注册时长1.5年

发表于 06-15 19:39 来自股吧网页版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 19:40

已答

明天12.73开盘，我猜一猜对是错……

口水九

影响力注册时长1.5年

发表于 06-15 02:20 来自Android版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 18:47

已答

恒生电子和蚂蚁金服什么关系？

何求9999

影响力注册时长10.5年

发表于 03-25 11:19 来自iPhone版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 15:58

已答

砸的真惨 下午本人准备抄底了

股友TZTYnF6535

影响力注册时长1.5年

发表于 06-15 15:05 来自股吧网页版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 15:05

已答

为什么我买的中国信达不涨？11.77

股海寻踪

影响力注册时长4.3年

发表于 06-06 17:51 来自iPhone版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 11:18

已答

大盘天天跌，跌的没脾气了

发表于 06-15 08:39 来自股吧网页版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 08:39

已答

准备4元出手买入维护股价

发表于 05-06 13:19 来自iPhone版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 03:18

已答

节前大幅度减仓，今天75-78接回来了

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财联社7月15日

来自私募排排网的数据显示，近期东方港湾掌门人但斌管理的多只产品净值波动幅度明显加大，显示其可能已进行加仓。此前，相关知情人士也透露，最近部分产品仓位做了一定调整。

值得一提的是，在此前路演中，但斌在谈及后市时曾强调，今年可能到三季度或四季度会有一次“本垒打”的机会，就像2018年年底一样，可能会出现一次重大的投资机遇。

事实上，进入三季度，业内已基本形成底部区域的共识。不仅是东方港湾，当前，不少头部私募整体仓位都在最近有了一些提升。上述背景下，哪些板块机会最受看好？

但斌旗下基金或已加仓

近日，但斌掌管的东方港湾旗下多只基金，从最新净值上看，波动开始加剧。这显示针对部分产品但斌已开始进行加仓操作。

例如，私募排排网的数据显示，截至7月15日，但斌管理的中融-东方港湾3号证券投资在7月1日至7月11日区间内出现了3.73%的跌幅。值得注意的是，该产品自从2月25日至6月2日区间内的净值波动幅度非常小，不过6月以来该产品波动幅度逐步增大。

此外，截至7月15日，东方港湾马拉松7号的净值波动幅度自6月2日以来也出现了明显波动，而在3月至6月期间，该基金的净值走势几乎为一条直线。

今年3月，但斌旗下产品净值变化较小，彼时外界猜测其已空仓，当时但斌回应称，仓位比较低，大概在10%左右。无论事实如何，由于彼时的低仓位运行，但斌旗下产品成功躲过了3月、4月A股的深度回调。

5月19日时，但斌做了一场关于东方港湾马拉松19号产品回顾与展望的路演。在路演中，但斌对公司目前的情况、市场的看法、后市的布局等多方面做了分析和解读。其间，但斌多次对公司此前的业绩表达了歉意，“从去年2月份到今年2月份，我们确确实实没做好。”

“我们在去年就应该下定决心做风控了，今年稍微有点晚了，当然这几个月还算好一些，但总体来说还是有点晚。我们今年的操作到目前为止还算是躲过了二、三、四几个月的市场大跌。我们现在保持了10%的仓位，是以龙头白酒为主的这样一个仓位度过市场的一个危机。目前公司管理规模大概在250亿左右，申购和赎回没太大的变化。”但斌称。

不过，5月以来，市场呈现明显的反弹行情。彼时，但斌表示，年初认为全球市场面临系统性风险，就作了减仓，到现在保持了10%的仓位，但是下一阶段会以小仓位20%~30%去参与阶段性反弹。随着此后市场热度的不断提升，6月沪指连克3200点、3300点、3400点整数关口。这一情况对前期大幅减持到一成仓位的私募大佬但斌而言，无疑踏空了这一波行情。

也就是从6月起，但斌旗下的部分产品净值波动开始增大，说明其在此时已开始执行加仓动作。对此，东方港湾曾回应称，目前只是部分产品作了仓位调整，相对看好今年三季度或四季度的机会。

作为国内的老牌私募之一，深圳东方港湾投资于2004年成立。私募排排网数据显示，东方港湾核心策略为股票策略，目前旗下229只基金管理规模在100亿以上。但斌本人有着28年的投资经验，过往市场对他的评价多与价值投资、长期投资相关。对A股股王贵州茅台的长期持有，也是他的代表作之一。

加仓已成当前主流操作

当前，选择加仓的私募大佬只有但斌，4月份一度保持低位运行的百亿私募林园投资旗下部分产品净值波动也在逐步加大。

例如，林园旗下的深国投-林园证券投资今年3月18日至5月20日振幅不足2%，而5月20日至6月20日涨幅却高达9.58%。

进一步来看，2022年7月融智·中国对冲基金经理A股信心指数为135.31，相较2022年6月环比大幅上升6.68%，创近一年新高。其中，仓位在5成及5成仓以上的私募基金占比86.6%，环比上涨6.7%。其中11%的私募目前处于满仓及加杠杆状态。

此外，一些知名私募基金经理也做出了调仓动作，纷纷加仓看好的标的。

具体来看，高毅资产邓晓峰二季度继续加仓中航电子。截至5月26日，高毅晓峰鸿远持股数量为2090.2万股，较一季度末的2071.59万股增加了18.61万股；高毅晓峰2号致信基金持股数量为1708.96万股，较一季度末的1689.96万股增加了19万股。

高毅资产的冯柳则加仓惠泰医疗。截至6月14日，冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金在今年二季度加仓了惠泰医疗12万股，持有的股份数量增至150万股。

而进入三季度，多数私募机构对A股未来走势持乐观态度。根据中基协数据显示，从月度备案情况来看，2022年6月，新备案私募基金数量2562只，环比增长25.59%；新备案规模486.05亿元，环比增长13.2%。其中，私募证券投资基金1882只，占新备案基金数量的73.46%，新备案规模163.89亿元，环比增长21.51%；私募股权投资基金265只，新备案规模173.94亿元，环比增长8.83%；创业投资基金415只，新备案规模148.22亿元，环比增长10.06%。

私募后市瞄向哪？

事实上，对于目前的市场，业内已基本形成底部区域的共识，这时候往往是“捡筹码”的最佳时机，那么针对后市，私募加仓瞄准哪些方向？跟随着百亿私募的最新调研对象，或许能够找到答案。

整体而言，在A股市场整体回暖大背景下，百亿私募的净值、仓位双双拉升，且百亿私募对上市公司的调研也在积极展开。私募排排网数据显示，截至7月13日，7月来一共有25家百亿私募合计对65家上市公司进行了108次调研。

在25家百亿私募对65家上市公司进行的108次调研中，聚鸣投资最为勤奋，7月来对15家上市公司进行了调研，其次是汐泰的11家，再次是淡水泉的10家。另外，盘京投资、泓澄投资、同犇投资、中欧瑞博、旌安投资、凯丰投资、星石投资等7家百亿私募7月来调研上市公司数量超过5家。

以聚鸣投资主要调研四大方向来看，分别是基建方向：坚朗五金，浩洋股份，铭利达，嘉友国际，伟星新材，新能源方向：安科瑞，祥鑫科技，英杰电气，横店东磁，医疗方向：开立医疗，美年健康，疫情复苏方向：海峡股份；以及华凯易佰，曼卡龙，福立旺这15只个股。

而最受百亿私募关注的个股之一的仙鹤股份，则是泓澄投资、淡水泉、盛泉恒元投资、久期投资、星石投资五家百亿私募的重点关注对象。伟星新材本月也接待了泓澄投资、聚鸣投资、同犇投资、红筹投资、中欧瑞博投资五家百亿私募的调研。

针对后市，不少私募表示，看好可选消费、医药、中报业绩超预期增长等投资方向。其中，针对消费板块，星石投资首席研究官；高级基金经理、副总经理喻宗亮就表示，当前的消费现状远低于长期趋势线水平，内在就有需求回补、向上回归的动力。而在需求回升的初期阶段，价格弹性并不显著；但随着需求恢复的不断深入，供给方将占据更强势地位，需求的小幅增长都可能会推升价格的快速上涨，消费行业巨大的盈利弹性届时将得以展现。

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恒生电子吧(600570)

恒生电子吧

62.76-2.12-3.27%

帖子数1篇

圆fang

影响力注册时长3.1年

发表于 今天 11:03 来自Android版

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更新于 今天 12:47

已答

恒生慢点涨，等我先抄了万达的底来

MACD8899

影响力注册时长3.7年

发表于 今天 08:36 来自Android版

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更新于 今天 12:35

已答

什么叫高科技企业，看中国软件的财务报表你就明白！

时空概率估算者

影响力注册时长2.9年

发表于 今天 12:02 来自Android版

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更新于 今天 12:10

已答

谁知道恒生要“横”多久，还是近期科创板会来一波“狠”的？

股友F96FXA

影响力注册时长11个月

发表于 今天 10:23 来自Android版

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更新于 今天 10:25

已答

有点垃圾！

天道酬勤以静制动666

影响力注册时长2.5年

发表于 06-07 20:54 来自iPhone版

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更新于 06-15 23:53

已答

短期底部特征极其明显，开始近2周的反弹。

股友bYYveq6175

影响力注册时长1.5年

发表于 06-15 19:39 来自股吧网页版

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更新于 06-15 19:40

已答

明天12.73开盘，我猜一猜对是错……

口水九

影响力注册时长1.5年

发表于 06-15 02:20 来自Android版

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更新于 06-15 18:47

已答

恒生电子和蚂蚁金服什么关系？

何求9999

影响力注册时长10.5年

发表于 03-25 11:19 来自iPhone版

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更新于 06-15 15:58

已答

砸的真惨 下午本人准备抄底了

股友TZTYnF6535

影响力注册时长1.5年

发表于 06-15 15:05 来自股吧网页版

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更新于 06-15 15:05

已答

为什么我买的中国信达不涨？11.77

股海寻踪

影响力注册时长4.3年

发表于 06-06 17:51 来自iPhone版

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更新于 06-15 11:18

已答

大盘天天跌，跌的没脾气了

发表于 06-15 08:39 来自股吧网页版

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更新于 06-15 08:39

已答

准备4元出手买入维护股价

发表于 05-06 13:19 来自iPhone版

帖子审核中，仅自己可见

更新于 06-15 03:18

已答

节前大幅度减仓，今天75-78接回来了

返回顶部

手机网 eastmoney.com

近日，马云旗下恒生电子公司公布2022年半年报业绩预告，上半年亏损9943万元，同比大降113.90%，连续两个季度净利润负增长，今年一季度亏损4129.58万元，同比下降124.49%。

如果扣除非经常性损益的话，今年上半年恒生电子也只有1.15亿元。

但神奇的是，面对这样一份半年报，有券商既然给出2022年全年净利润最高为18.26亿预测值，而且不仅仅是一家。

半年报发布后，有6家券商对恒生电子2022年度业绩做出预测，其中国盛证券研究员刘高畅给出18.26亿元的预测值，东吴证券给出16.97亿元的预测值，国金证券给出最低的预测值也有13.39亿元。

在此之前，今年已有28家券商对恒生电子全年净利润做出了预测。其中预测值最高的是东莞证券研究员罗炜斌，给出了18.96亿元的目标值，最低的预测值12.12亿元，目前34家预测恒生电子2022年净利润均值为15.92亿元。

但是历史上，恒生电子净利润最高值也只有14.64亿元，2018年到2021年恒生电子的净利润分别为6.45亿元、14.16亿元、13.22亿元和14.64亿元，扣非净利润分别为5.16亿元、8.90亿元、7.34亿元和9.47亿元。

所以，券商满嘴跑火车的利润预测到底是如何而来的呢？还有更离谱的是股价预测，34家券商给出恒生电子6个月内目标价格最高预测83.64元，最低预测50.00元，平均为59.26元。

但是，截至2022年7月15日收盘，恒生电子的股价仅为38.71元，而且目前处于下跌通道中并无止跌之势，从历史上看恒生电子股价只有较少的时间段股价超过80元，在此情况下喊出如此高的目标价位，岂不是叫人接“飞刀”，误导投资者。

1

券商的业绩股价预测多离谱？

2015年1月20日，长城证券发了一份研报，名为《我们坚决不要脸了》，正如其所言，近几年券商的研报确实越来越不要脸了。

比如，类似《和尚，你又在与哪个女人纠缠？——唐僧的911》、《“亚文化”深度研究系列之一：粉红当道，宅腐盛行》、《你大妈不是你大妈，你大爷还是你大爷》、《侠之大者，为国接盘》、《长得帅就死得快么？》等研报，为了博眼球不惜找噱头、标题党，无所不用其极。

还有券商既然玩起了玄学，2021年10月，国盛证券发布了一篇名为《天干地支在择时中的应用初探》的研报，竟用“阴阳五行”“天干地支”分析股票走势。当年12月，安信证券投资顾问陈南鹏也发布了一篇《仁者无敌-2022中国股市预测》，采用了“金木水火土”的理论预测股票走势。

不过券商研报的“通病”还是无脑式吹票，有时候吹得太猛，连上市公司自己都感到“害怕”。

2022年1月11日，上海证券发布了一篇名为《安旭生物深度报告：原料自主可控，引领POCT检测发展》的研报， 预测安旭生物2021~2023年将实现归母净利润同比增长11.9%/311.5%/-44.6%，研报发布当日收获20%幅度涨停。

但这篇研报很快遭到了上市公司“打脸”，安旭生物在随后的澄清公告中表示，其从未接受过上海证券相关人员任何形式的访谈调研等活动，报告仅为上海证券研究所意见，不代表公司立场。

无独有偶，今年5月27日中信证券通过公众号“中信证券研究”所发布的研报《莱特光电：打造OLED有机材料平台，推动国产替代》预测莱特光电预计公司2022到2024年归母净利润为2.15/4.06/5.48亿元，预测股价将达到28.8元，而当时莱特光电的股价仅为14元。

研报发布后，莱特光电连续大涨7个交易日，其中3个交易日涨幅为20%，一直到6月7日，股价收盘36.36元，股价累计涨幅约160%。

莱特光电今年3月18日在科创板挂牌上市，上市后即破发，股价持续下跌。最终中信证券凭一份研报扭转了乾坤，而中信证券正是莱特光电的保荐机构，不仅保荐还做了跟投，中信证券此举实属“王婆卖瓜，自卖自夸”。

或许是股价涨得太快，让莱特光电感觉到了“害怕”，5月30日莱特光电出来澄清，表示这只是仅为券商单方面预测！

但是一般情况下，保荐机构给上市公司做投资价值报告都会事前沟通好，所以莱特光电大概率是早已知道这份报告的内容，这应当是一起提前谋划好的行动。

最终，莱特光电不出所料的收到了交易所的监管工作函。

中信建投证券也干过类似的事情。2021年8月24日，中信建投分析师发了一篇名为《巨星科技：自有品牌、动力工具和跨境电商，三个维度均表现出色》的研报，认为巨星科技2021-2023年公司归母净利润分别为16.98亿元、21.64亿元、26.69亿元，同比增长25.74%、27.45%、23.34%。

而巨星科技在2021年上半年净利润7.28亿元，同比增速15.26%，比一季度增速大幅下降了26个百分点。对此巨星科技董秘回应称“业绩预测太激进了，公司做不到啊。”

而这些只是券商无脑吹票的冰山一角，实际上A股多数公司都或多或少遭遇过券商的无脑吹票。

2

券商发布业绩股价预测是否合理？

券商发表证券研究报告应当是一件严谨的事情，但现在券商投研圈越来越像娱乐圈。一位拥有16年经验的投研老炮直言，“分析师就像是娱乐行业，注水则是行业潜规则。”

对于券商分析师而言，“出名”似乎比“正确”更为重要。“报告只有冒泡，才能让别人记住你。这比你深入分析后得出中性结论的报告，更有吸引力。因为中性结论的报告，可能根本没有人会看。”一位券商投顾如是说道，为了能够“冒泡”，他们“大声地喊出来，用夸张的方式去表现，让别人记住他。”

成功出圈的分析师可能会选择基金经理或者其他方向转型，所以券商分析师团队往往也存在逆向选择的问题。

写研报这种“苦力活”往往都是留给“小白”来做，市面上大多数研报实际上是出自实习生之手，或者是刚大学毕业没几年的新手，自身对行业市场的理解欠缺，更别说提供投资建议，预测能力几乎等于瞎猜。

2022年6月，金融圈就曾曝出过一起让人大跌眼镜的案例，复旦大学经济学院研究生刘某在多家证券公司实习期间，冒用分析师名义骗一群毕业生写研报。实际上，类似的情况在券商研报圈不在少数。

抛开券商分析师自身素质不说，单从预测业绩和预测股价而言，市场上大部分人几乎没有准确预测的能力，股神巴菲特就曾说过 “我们深信对股票或债券价格所作的短期预测根本是没有用的。预测这件事或许能够让你更了解预测者本身，但对于了解未来却是一点帮助也没有。”

券商所谓的股价预测、业绩预测本来就是很荒唐的事情，本身并无多少存在意义。

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